Abundance Determination of Large Mammals with Distance Sampling Perspective, the Case of Elephants of the Mole National Park (MNP) of Ghana
Issue:
Volume 12, Issue 2, March 2023
Pages:
18-31
Received:
30 November 2022
Accepted:
3 January 2023
Published:
18 May 2023
Abstract: Distance sampling with line transect method has been applied by many researchers to monitor and observe varied animals and plants with the aim of determining the population density and or abundance of animals. The application of this method has not received the needed attention in Ghana, in particular to monitor, observe, and estimate the densities and abundance of animals and plants in the game reserves of the Mole National Park (MNP) is not without exception and the statistics of these are always reported based on guesses and without any scientific proof. This study has seen the application of line transect methodology in the MNP in which the abundance estimates are statistically determined with both the classical and Bayesian philosophies of statistical approaches. An alternative means of detectability estimation using the total probability concept has been established to enhance the probability of detection of a rare and elusive population of large mammals. In performing statistical investigations on rare and elusive population, it appears insufficient to model from the classical perspective, the use of PRIOR knowledge as seen in the Bayesian context cannot be underestimated. This study proposed that the concept of Total Probability with prior knowledge of animals and plants in line transect surveys must be well embraced, Periodic censuss must be conducted regularly to help in establishing the rate of extinction of units of interest in wildlife and Distance sampling data with line transect sampling methodology need not be analysed using only the classical reasoning. Attention must be given to the existence and availability of prior knowledge of the units under study.
Abstract: Distance sampling with line transect method has been applied by many researchers to monitor and observe varied animals and plants with the aim of determining the population density and or abundance of animals. The application of this method has not received the needed attention in Ghana, in particular to monitor, observe, and estimate the densities...
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Techniques for Computing the Probability of a Gambler’s Ruin with Applications to Playing Roulette
William Henry Laverty,
Ivan William Kelly
Issue:
Volume 12, Issue 2, March 2023
Pages:
32-36
Received:
14 April 2023
Accepted:
8 May 2023
Published:
18 May 2023
Abstract: An interest in gambling has greatly increased over the last few decades with the more common use of slot machines and online gambling, especially sports betting. A concern that has been publically raised is addiction and eventual gambler’s ruin (loss of all money). In this paper we provide a solution to the Gambler’s Ruin problem in regards to roulette. We compute the probability of a gamblers ruin with applications to the various betting opportunities playing roulette by determining the W+1 roots of the relevant polynomials and from there determine the probability of a gamblers ruin. We find situations where the payoff becomes higher, the probability of ruin becomes lower. Lower goals of gain are associated with a lower probability of ruin and larger bets and larger odds payoff also increase the probability of ruin.
Abstract: An interest in gambling has greatly increased over the last few decades with the more common use of slot machines and online gambling, especially sports betting. A concern that has been publically raised is addiction and eventual gambler’s ruin (loss of all money). In this paper we provide a solution to the Gambler’s Ruin problem in regards to roul...
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