On the Fourier Residual Modification of Arima Models in Modeling Malaria Incidence Rates among Pregnant Women
Chinonso Micheal Eze,
Oluchukwu Chukwuemeka Asogwa,
Charity Uchenna Onwuamaeze,
Nnaemeka Martin Eze,
Chukwunenye Ifeanyi Okonkwo
Issue:
Volume 9, Issue 1, January 2020
Pages:
1-7
Received:
10 February 2020
Accepted:
3 April 2020
Published:
13 April 2020
Abstract: This work provides a general overview and consideration of Box-Jenkins models for temporal data and its extension known as Fourier residual autoregressive moving average models. We examined the modeling and forecasting of malaria incidence rate during pregnancy at Bishop Shannahan Hospital, Nsukka using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models propounded by Box and Jenkins. We adoptted the Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model for malaria incidences during pregnancy for a period of 10 years spanning from January 2006 to December 2016. Among the candidate models considered, ARIMA (3,1,1) was identified to be the most robust based on some model performance measures. The model was further improved upon by incorporating Fourier residual modification on the fitted ARIMA model. The Fourier Residual Autoregressive Moving Average (FARIMA) model obtained yielded improved result. Besides, model evaluation criterion such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), Mean Absolute Scaled Error (MASE), were used to access the models. FARIMA Model out performed ARIMA Model. Several time series plots and tests like augmented dickey fuller test, correlogram, Ljung-Box test for serial correlation of the residuals, etc were carried out in this study to test for stationarity, identify the order of ARIMA model and serial correlation residual respectively.
Abstract: This work provides a general overview and consideration of Box-Jenkins models for temporal data and its extension known as Fourier residual autoregressive moving average models. We examined the modeling and forecasting of malaria incidence rate during pregnancy at Bishop Shannahan Hospital, Nsukka using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARI...
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Statistical Analysis of Risk Factors of Drug Addiction of Youth in Debre Berhan Town, Ethiopia
Bezarede Mekonnen,
Legesse Alamrie
Issue:
Volume 9, Issue 1, January 2020
Pages:
8-13
Received:
7 October 2019
Accepted:
15 April 2020
Published:
23 April 2020
Abstract: Drugs are damaging by their nature. These substances produce changes in behavior function by altering the chemistry of the brain. Once brain function is altered, a person experiences physical, psychological, and behavioral changes as a direct result. Changes in physical and psychological functioning cause damage to the mind, body, behavior and can harm the social relationships. According United Nations Office for Drug Control and Crime Prevention report, the use of substances such as alcohol, khat, and tobacco has become one of the rising major public health and socioeconomic problem worldwide. The main objective of this study is to identify the risk factors for drug addiction of youth in debre berhan town. In general, this study is expected to be useful for the parents, the youth themselves, government, nongovernmental organization, and city administration in providing primary information and assist the concerned bodies to come up with appropriate intervention strategies that can help to curb the drug problem. The data is primary and cross-sectional. Descriptive statistics and the binary logistic regression analysis is applied to examine the association between the binary outcome dependent variable and explanatory variables. The binary logistic model revealed that the numbers of youth those are addicted in the age group 20-25 are much greater than from the youth those are addicted in the age group 15-19 and 25-30, youths with family members who use drugs are more likely to be drug addicts, and also those who are orthodox religion followers are more likely to be addicted than Muslim, protestant and other religion follower, additionally youth who are single are more drug user than married, divorced and widowed.
Abstract: Drugs are damaging by their nature. These substances produce changes in behavior function by altering the chemistry of the brain. Once brain function is altered, a person experiences physical, psychological, and behavioral changes as a direct result. Changes in physical and psychological functioning cause damage to the mind, body, behavior and can ...
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