Volume 4, Issue 1-1, January 2015, Page: 19-23
Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia
Yibeltal Arega Ashebir, Department of Statistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw, Department of Statistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
Anteneh Asmare Godana, Department of Statistics, University of Gondar, Gondar, Ethiopia
Received: Aug. 16, 2014;       Accepted: Feb. 8, 2015;       Published: Mar. 20, 2015
DOI: 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14      View  2763      Downloads  163
For a long period of time, Ethiopia has involved in foreign trade and experienced trade deficit several time in the past. This deficit can be largely explained by the unequal terms of trade between agricultural commodities (the country's major export) and capital goods (the country’s major import). The core objective of study was to model the balance of trade in Ethiopia and forecast its value through ARIMA model by using annual data from 1974/75 to 2009/10. The appropriate model was ARIMA (3, 1, 0) and the forecasted value of balance of trade is expected to raising time to time from 2010/11 up to 2015/16.
Trade Balance, ARIMA
To cite this article
Yibeltal Arega Ashebir, Tewodros Getinet Yirtaw, Anteneh Asmare Godana, Modelling and Forecasting the Balance of Trade in Ethiopia, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. Special Issue: Computational Statistics. Vol. 4, No. 1-1, 2015, pp. 19-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.s.2015040101.14
Box, G.E.P. and G.M. Jenkins (1970). Times Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco, CA.
Challen, J. and Hagger, S. (1983). Economics; Mathematical models. St. Martin's Press, New York.
Dickey, D. A. and W. A. Fuller (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, PP. 427–431.
Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. Giles and Mizra, New York.
Greene, W.H (2003). Econometric Analysis, 5th edition. Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.
Maddala, G.S (1992). Introduction to Econometrics, 2nd edition. University of Florida and Ohio state university, Macmillan, New York.
National Bank of Ethiopia (2007/08). Annual Report. Documentation and Publication Service, Addis Ababa.
Negadras Gebrehiwot Baykedagn (1912). Emperor Minlik and Ethiopia. Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
Nelson, C. and Plosser, C. (1982). Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 10, PP. 130-162.
Browse journals by subject