Volume 4, Issue 3, May 2015, Page: 99-111
Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results
Desmond Mwembe, National University of Science and Technology, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Lizwe Sibanda, National University of Science and Technology, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Ndava Constantine Mupondo, National University of Science and Technology, Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Ascot, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe
Received: Mar. 10, 2015;       Accepted: Mar. 27, 2015;       Published: Apr. 7, 2015
DOI: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15      View  4079      Downloads  264
Abstract
The study seeks to construct a profitable betting strategy for soccer results by developing a bivariate Poisson model for the analysis and computation of probabilities for football match outcomes. The dependence coefficient is estimated from Monte Carlo simulation and the scoring intensities are estimated from a log-linear model. The hypothesis tests show that the home-ground effect exists for some, but not all teams in the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League. The profitable betting rule is to place a bet on the outcome of a particular match when a model's probabilistic forecast suggests a sufficient edge over the bookmaker's implied probability.
Keywords
Betting Strategy, Soccer, Home-Ground Advantage, Scoring Intensities, Fixed-Odds
To cite this article
Desmond Mwembe, Lizwe Sibanda, Ndava Constantine Mupondo, Application of a Bivariate Poisson Model in Devising a Profitable Betting Strategy of the Zimbabwe Premier Soccer League Match Results, American Journal of Theoretical and Applied Statistics. Vol. 4, No. 3, 2015, pp. 99-111. doi: 10.11648/j.ajtas.20150403.15
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